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How we trade

Portfolio Equity

Full portfolio balance from backtest start. Includes unrealized PnL from open positions. The highlighted region shows your currently selected time period.

Liquidity-aware curve (light blue)

The light-blue curve limits every position to 2% of its market's 30-day traded volume across the exchanges we execute on — the same limit live trading enforces. From the marked date (2024-07-16) onward, theoretical performance is limited by the traded volume of the smaller altcoins, not by the strategy. At today's volumes this limit starts to matter for portfolios above roughly $250k; the threshold moves with market volumes.

5 largest drawdowns (marked red in the chart)

  1. −24.3%  2022-11-05 → 2022-11-09 (recovered 2023-01-12)
  2. −19.1%  2020-03-02 → 2020-03-12 (recovered 2020-04-06)
  3. −18.4%  2026-05-10 → 2026-06-06 (recovered 2026-08-21)
  4. −14.8%  2021-05-20 → 2021-05-23 (recovered 2021-05-24)
  5. −13.4%  2022-05-06 → 2022-05-12 (recovered 2022-05-15)

5 largest intraday drawdowns (light red, measured against intraday lows)

  1. −30.2%  2020-03-02 → 2020-03-13 (recovered 2020-04-06)
  2. −30.2%  2021-05-20 → 2021-05-23 (recovered 2021-05-24)
  3. −29.2%  2022-11-05 → 2022-11-09 (recovered 2023-01-12)
  4. −26.3%  2021-05-18 → 2021-05-19 (recovered 2021-05-20)
  5. −25.5%  2024-04-08 → 2024-04-13 (recovered 2024-04-14)

Important: The performance figures shown are historical and provided for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. These results do not constitute investment advice, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.

Max Drawdown

Smart-HODL

1.93 1.93%

Lower drawdown pain, faster recoveries, and shorter time spent underwater.

Multi-Asset Buy & Hold

11.08%

Deep, prolonged drawdowns that keep capital trapped for months or years.

Profit

Smart-HODL

2.61 +2.61%

+$213,123

Combined profit from 58 positions across 20 strategies ($855,344,270 deployed).

Multi-Asset Buy & Hold

-10.32%

-$29,446

Multi-Asset Buy & Hold return since Oct 1, 2026 (portfolio was $285,305 at start).

Risk Acknowledgment

Cryptocurrency and digital asset trading carries a high level of risk, including the possible loss of all capital. You should carefully consider whether such trading is appropriate for your financial situation, experience, and risk tolerance. The software does not provide personalized investment, financial, tax, or legal advice and should not be relied upon as such.

Positions

Date Strategy Entry Price Close Price Close Time Qty Status PNL Chart
Oct 16, 2025 Cosmos, DD $2.261 — — 2,127,598.5 Open -13.259% -$1,081,113.65 incl. -$7,216 costs View
Nov 11, 2025 Aave, DD $203.78 — — 10,057.2 Open -6.087% -$496,341.14 incl. -$3,074 costs View
Nov 12, 2025 Solana, DD $145.42 — — 14,104 Open -7.109% -$579,623.15 incl. -$3,076 costs View
Nov 12, 2025 Polkadot, DD $2.619 — — 1,315,423.1 Open -23.268% -$1,897,234.74 incl. -$5,168 costs View
Jan 20, 2026 Cardano, DD $0.2772 — — 30,123,866.5 Open -19.466% -$1,587,226.53 incl. -$12,525 costs View
Mar 3, 2026 PAX Gold, L $4,567.91 — — 10,000.0775 Open -49.570% -$4,041,830.77 incl. -$68,519 costs View
May 27, 2026 Tron, L $0.35716 — — 81,357,144.65000001 Open -21.566% -$1,758,453.32 incl. -$43,587 costs View
May 28, 2026 Tron, L2 $0.34025 — — 61,843,478.65 Open -3.565% -$290,664.35 incl. -$31,563 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 11:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L 1H $743.36 $749.71 Oct 1, 2026 05:00 45,369.56 Closed +3.122% +$254,536.47 incl. -$50,589 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 11:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L2 1H $741.26 $749.71 Oct 1, 2026 05:00 45,521.59 Closed +4.302% +$350,803.37 incl. -$50,615 costs View
Sep 28, 2026 Render, L $1.945 $1.973 Oct 2, 2026 8,562,797.585 Closed +2.761% +$225,151.17 incl. -$24,979 costs View
Sep 28, 2026 Cosmos, L $1.721 $2.063 Oct 9, 2026 16,336,404.85 Closed +68.169% +$5,558,412.06 incl. -$42,168 costs View
Sep 28, 2026 Polkadot, L $1.109 $1.235 Oct 9, 2026 39,506,139.55 Closed +60.558% +$4,937,813.60 incl. -$65,726 costs View
Sep 29, 2026 Chainlink, L $14.084 $14.101 Oct 3, 2026 2,976,688.27 Closed +0.111% +$9,048.05 incl. -$62,885 costs View
Oct 1, 2026 07:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L 1H $743.15 $748.34 Oct 2, 2026 08:00 48,972.3 Closed +2.667% +$217,471.60 incl. -$54,591 costs View
Oct 1, 2026 07:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L2 1H $741.32 $748.34 Oct 2, 2026 08:00 19,664.3 Closed +1.512% +$123,255.25 incl. -$21,866 costs View
Oct 2, 2026 Sui, L $1.1166 $1.1828 Oct 3, 2026 15,355,143.445 Closed +12.261% +$999,752.21 incl. -$25,717 costs View
Oct 2, 2026 13:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L 1H $749.84 $756.08 Oct 5, 2026 19:00 47,808.05 Closed +3.216% +$262,210.86 incl. -$53,773 costs View
Oct 2, 2026 18:00 Zcash, L 1H $1,286.19 $1,288.59 Oct 2, 2026 21:00 8,881.995 Closed +0.121% +$9,833.32 incl. -$17,136 costs View
Oct 2, 2026 18:00 Ripple, L 1H $1.4454 $1.4626 Oct 2, 2026 18:00 9,616,246.45 Closed +1.859% +$151,557.97 incl. -$20,848 costs View
Oct 2, 2026 18:00 Dogecoin, L 1H $0.09093 $0.09138 Oct 2, 2026 19:00 115,922,562.5 Closed +0.518% +$42,244.20 incl. -$15,811 costs View
Oct 2, 2026 VeChain, L $0.008285 $0.008728 Oct 3, 2026 2,547,487,255 Closed +13.548% +$1,104,685.85 incl. -$31,659 costs View
Oct 3, 2026 Monero, L3 $556.01 $539.40 Oct 8, 2026 22,351.506 Closed -4.703% -$383,449.12 incl. -$18,641 costs View
Oct 5, 2026 14:00 Chainlink, L 1H $13.661 $13.811 Oct 5, 2026 16:00 773,007.09 Closed +1.296% +$105,635.36 incl. -$15,840 costs View
Oct 6, 2026 01:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L 1H $758.75 — — 46,904.905 Open -27.691% -$2,257,917.32 incl. -$53,384 costs View
Oct 7, 2026 Sui, L $1.0889 $1.0687 Oct 9, 2026 32,894,014.16 Closed -8.590% -$700,431.05 incl. -$53,726 costs View
Oct 7, 2026 Render, L $1.966 $1.930 Oct 10, 2026 17,383,288.335 Closed -8.079% -$658,768.97 incl. -$51,263 costs View
Oct 7, 2026 Dogecoin, L $0.08594 $0.08671 Oct 11, 2026 331,406,481.5 Closed +2.786% +$227,153.26 incl. -$42,719 costs View
Oct 7, 2026 Cardano, L $0.2412 $0.2490 Oct 10, 2026 126,519,227 Closed +11.719% +$955,556.42 incl. -$45,770 costs View
Oct 7, 2026 02:00 Chainlink, L 1H $13.269 $13.607 Oct 7, 2026 03:00 787,566.74 Closed +3.140% +$256,013.05 incl. -$15,675 costs View
Oct 7, 2026 09:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L2 1H $753.29 — — 48,173.125 Open -25.213% -$2,055,804.68 incl. -$54,432 costs View
Oct 7, 2026 Solana, L $111.07 — — 234,756.5 Open -19.445% -$1,585,520.28 incl. -$39,113 costs View
Oct 7, 2026 VeChain, L $0.007773 $0.007841 Oct 9, 2026 5,000,000,000 Closed +4.052% +$330,411.97 incl. -$58,298 costs View
Oct 8, 2026 Hyperliquid, DD $84.222 — — 33,855.685 Open -1.727% -$140,791.71 incl. -$4,277 costs View
Oct 8, 2026 Binance Coin, L $746.29 $741.83 Oct 9, 2026 14,199.55 Closed -0.906% -$73,849.83 incl. -$15,895 costs View
Oct 8, 2026 Binance Coin, L2 $719.89 $741.83 Oct 9, 2026 14,199.55 Closed +3.693% +$301,124.74 incl. -$15,333 costs View
Oct 8, 2026 Sui, L2 $1.0016 $1.0687 Oct 9, 2026 17,112,410.695 Closed +13.860% +$1,130,108.26 incl. -$25,709 costs View
Oct 8, 2026 Zcash, L $1,126.73 $1,204.67 Oct 9, 2026 12,642.175 Closed +11.902% +$970,510.25 incl. -$21,367 costs View
Oct 8, 2026 15:00 Ripple, L 1H $1.3505 $1.3582 Oct 8, 2026 18:00 10,586,674.6 Closed +0.827% +$67,462.68 incl. -$21,446 costs View
Oct 8, 2026 Chainlink, L $12.468 $12.797 Oct 9, 2026 1,713,706.78 Closed +6.640% +$541,413.55 incl. -$32,050 costs View
Oct 8, 2026 15:00 Bitcoin, L 1H $81,318.8 $81,426.2 Oct 8, 2026 18:00 192.601 Closed +0.061% +$5,002.61 incl. -$23,493 costs View
Oct 8, 2026 Render, L2 $1.793 $1.930 Oct 10, 2026 9,532,452.09 Closed +15.831% +$1,290,818.91 incl. -$25,634 costs View
Oct 8, 2026 Solana, L2 $106.67 — — 80,116.8 Open -2.304% -$187,873.90 incl. -$12,818 costs View
Oct 8, 2026 Aave, L $162.45 $167.14 Oct 9, 2026 87,684.9 Closed +4.863% +$396,519.63 incl. -$21,367 costs View
Oct 9, 2026 Monero, DD $519.14 $537.61 Oct 11, 2026 2,747.778 Closed +0.605% +$49,304.05 incl. -$2,140 costs View
Oct 10, 2026 Cosmos, L $1.870 — — 16,751,076.8 Open -24.065% -$1,962,187.63 incl. -$46,990 costs View
Oct 12, 2026 Sui, L $1.0647 — — 18,212,577.355 Open -12.754% -$1,039,974.59 incl. -$29,086 costs View
Oct 12, 2026 Bitcoin (USDC, short hedge), S $82,680.3 $83,299.9 Oct 13, 2026 362.347031 Closed -3.307% -$269,617.05 incl. -$44,938 costs View
Oct 12, 2026 Aave, L $159.99 — — 93,629.2 Open -6.381% -$520,325.55 incl. -$22,469 costs View
Oct 12, 2026 VeChain, L $0.007429 $0.007300 Oct 13, 2026 3,024,593,467.5 Closed -5.039% -$410,910.97 incl. -$33,705 costs View
Oct 13, 2026 Monero, L3 $548.94 — — 24,113.021 Open +3.054% +$248,982.98 incl. -$19,855 costs View
Oct 14, 2026 Bitcoin (USDC, short hedge), S $81,600.1 $82,598.8 Oct 16, 2026 367.1208765 Closed -5.051% -$411,854.25 incl. -$44,936 costs View
Oct 15, 2026 02:00 Render, L 1H $1.815 $1.879 Oct 15, 2026 04:00 7,998,455.605 Closed +6.110% +$498,214.64 incl. -$21,775 costs View
Oct 15, 2026 02:00 Dogecoin, L 1H $0.07797 $0.08061 Oct 15, 2026 04:00 140,012,905.5 Closed +4.399% +$358,655.07 incl. -$16,375 costs View
Oct 15, 2026 02:00 Chainlink, L 1H $11.979 $12.212 Oct 15, 2026 04:00 918,139.955 Closed +2.483% +$202,475.84 incl. -$16,498 costs View
Oct 15, 2026 02:00 Bitcoin, L 1H $80,282.9 $81,519.5 Oct 15, 2026 04:00 200.3645 Closed +2.840% +$231,569.53 incl. -$24,129 costs View
Oct 15, 2026 Render, L $1.796 $1.956 Oct 15, 2026 10,118,221.74 Closed +19.620% +$1,599,746.20 incl. -$27,259 costs View
Oct 15, 2026 Polkadot, L $1.056 $1.183 Oct 16, 2026 14,655,784.65 Closed +22.708% +$1,851,561.80 incl. -$23,209 costs View
58 positions Total: +2.61% (+$213,123.21)

Legal Disclaimer

This page is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and nothing herein constitutes financial, tax, legal, or investment advice. Your use of the software and interpretation of the data presented is at your own risk.

Legal Compliance

Users are responsible for determining whether use of this information is legal in their jurisdiction. This site does not provide legal, financial, or tax advice.

Portfolio Backtest Methodology

The portfolio view simulates all strategies trading together with shared capital — matching how live trading operates on one shared exchange balance.

Portfolio Simulation

  • • Shared Equity: All strategies share one capital pool ($1,000 per strategy). When one strategy profits, all strategies get proportionally larger allocations.
  • • Allocation Cap: Each strategy is limited to max 10% of portfolio equity per day, preventing any single strategy from dominating during bull markets.
  • • Daily Rebalancing: Allocations are recalculated each day from the total portfolio cash, matching how the live executor distributes capital across strategies.

Costs & Realistic Modeling

  • • Trading Fees: 0.05% taker fee per trade (Binance Futures VIP 0 level)
  • • Slippage: 0% on L/L2 entries (limit-style fills) and 0.05% on exits — simulates real-world market impact (0.15% round-trip cost per trade)
  • • Drawdown Tracking: Equity is tracked daily including unrealized PnL from open positions. Drawdowns reflect real underwater periods, not just realized losses.
  • • Funding Rates: Excluded. Smart-HODL trades longs during dips when funding is typically neutral or negative (favorable for longs).

Data & Execution

  • • Multi-Timeframe: Strategies use both daily (1D) and hourly (1H) candles for entry detection, matching the live executor behavior.
  • • Data Source: Binance Futures USDT perpetual contracts. Spot market data used for warmup periods before futures listing.
  • • Period: January 2020 to present (in-sample). Independently validated against 2017-2019 (out-of-sample) — see below. Each strategy activates when sufficient data becomes available for its asset.
  • • Updated: Results are recalculated nightly with the latest market data.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests are simulations and actual trading may differ due to market conditions, liquidity, and execution timing.

Out-of-Sample Validation (2017-2019)

A strategy that only works on the data it was tuned on is overfitted. To prove Smart-HODL is not overfitted to the 2020-present regime, we ran the exact same strategy parameters against an entirely independent window — 2017-01-01 to 2019-12-31 — that was never used during parameter tuning. This window is dominated by the 2018 bear market, when most crypto assets lost 75-90% of their value.

Smart-HODL portfolio
+5.34%
CAGR over 2017-2019
Max drawdown: 32.27%
Win rate: 84.0%
Margin breaches: 0
Buy & Hold benchmark
−22.99%
CAGR over the same window
BTC return: −56.0%
ETH return: −81.0%
Basket avg return: −27.9%
Out-of-sample alpha
+77.8 pp
Strategy − Buy & Hold (net profit)
Universe: 10 strategies with sufficient history
Trades: 374
Settings: identical to live (2× lev, 10% cap)

What this proves: The same parameters that produce strong returns in the 2020-present regime also stayed positive — and well above passive holding — in the worst bear market crypto has ever seen. The system is regime-aware, not regime-specific.

What it does not promise: Bear-market years will look like the 5% number, not the larger headline CAGR shown in bull-market backtests. A realistic long-run expectation blends both regimes. Live results will differ from any backtest due to slippage, latency, and exchange behavior under stress.

Honest tier: We classify Smart-HODL as a solid retail-quant strategy — top of the publicly available systematic-strategy bracket, but not institutional hedge-fund tier (e.g. Renaissance, Citadel, Two Sigma). Six years of crypto-cycle data is not a substitute for multi-decade, multi-regime institutional track records, and we size and communicate accordingly.

OOS data: Binance Spot 1D + 1H. Universe restricted to symbols listed before 2019-09 with ≥120 days warmup.