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How we trade

Portfolio Equity

Full portfolio balance from backtest start. Includes unrealized PnL from open positions. The highlighted region shows your currently selected time period.

Liquidity-aware curve (light blue)

The light-blue curve limits every position to 2% of its market's 30-day traded volume across the exchanges we execute on — the same limit live trading enforces. From the marked date (2024-07-06) onward, theoretical performance is limited by the traded volume of the smaller altcoins, not by the strategy. At today's volumes this limit starts to matter for portfolios above roughly $250k; the threshold moves with market volumes.

5 largest drawdowns (marked red in the chart)

  1. −25.9%  2022-11-05 → 2022-11-09 (recovered 2023-01-12)
  2. −23.4%  2020-03-02 → 2020-03-12 (recovered 2020-04-08)
  3. −20.3%  2026-05-10 → 2026-06-06 (recovered 2026-08-21)
  4. −15.6%  2021-05-20 → 2021-05-23 (recovered 2021-05-24)
  5. −15.4%  2022-05-06 → 2022-05-12 (recovered 2022-05-30)

5 largest intraday drawdowns (light red, measured against intraday lows)

  1. −34.0%  2020-03-02 → 2020-03-13 (recovered 2020-04-08)
  2. −32.0%  2021-05-20 → 2021-05-23 (recovered 2021-05-24)
  3. −31.2%  2022-11-05 → 2022-11-09 (recovered 2023-01-12)
  4. −28.6%  2021-05-18 → 2021-05-19 (recovered 2021-05-20)
  5. −27.0%  2024-04-08 → 2024-04-13 (recovered 2024-04-14)

Important: The performance figures shown are historical and provided for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. These results do not constitute investment advice, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.

Max Drawdown

Smart-HODL

6.69 6.69%

Lower drawdown pain, faster recoveries, and shorter time spent underwater.

Multi-Asset Buy & Hold

8.29%

Deep, prolonged drawdowns that keep capital trapped for months or years.

Profit

Smart-HODL

+18.82%

+$1,596,215

Combined profit from 83 positions across 26 strategies ($760,505,586 deployed).

Multi-Asset Buy & Hold

23.31 +23.31%

+$53,284

Multi-Asset Buy & Hold return since Sep 1, 2026 (portfolio was $228,605 at start).

Risk Acknowledgment

Cryptocurrency and digital asset trading carries a high level of risk, including the possible loss of all capital. You should carefully consider whether such trading is appropriate for your financial situation, experience, and risk tolerance. The software does not provide personalized investment, financial, tax, or legal advice and should not be relied upon as such.

Positions

Date Strategy Entry Price Close Price Close Time Qty Status PNL Chart
Oct 16, 2025 Cosmos, DD $2.264 — — 1,865,478.05 Open -10.246% -$868,868.79 incl. -$6,334 costs View
Nov 11, 2025 Aave, DD $203.78 — — 8,845.7 Open -4.998% -$423,812.42 incl. -$2,704 costs View
Nov 12, 2025 Solana, DD $145.42 — — 12,405.3 Open -3.491% -$296,067.00 incl. -$2,706 costs View
Nov 12, 2025 Polkadot, DD $2.619 — — 1,157,034.25 Open -19.068% -$1,617,058.34 incl. -$4,546 costs View
Jan 20, 2026 Cardano, DD $0.2772 — — 26,461,722.5 Open -6.100% -$517,273.75 incl. -$11,005 costs View
Jan 31, 2026 Polkadot, L $1.094 $1.245 Sep 8, 2026 22,343,467.9 Closed +39.571% +$3,355,748.88 incl. -$36,663 costs View
Mar 3, 2026 PAX Gold, L $4,567.66 — — 8,763.0235 Open -29.853% -$2,531,674.38 incl. -$60,040 costs View
May 11, 2026 Sui, L $1.1880 $1.1937 Sep 25, 2026 25,087,028.13 Closed +1.328% +$112,639.66 incl. -$44,706 costs View
May 27, 2026 Tron, L $0.35716 — — 71,434,527.34999999 Open -16.689% -$1,415,332.29 incl. -$38,271 costs View
May 28, 2026 Tron, L2 $0.34034 — — 53,807,760.25 Open -1.895% -$160,723.78 incl. -$27,469 costs View
Jun 4, 2026 Render, L $1.661 $1.733 Sep 20, 2026 18,746,464.64 Closed +15.558% +$1,319,349.37 incl. -$46,708 costs View
Aug 13, 2026 15:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L 1H $732.16 $737.58 Sep 21, 2026 15:00 33,312.185 Closed +1.841% +$156,092.16 incl. -$36,585 costs View
Aug 17, 2026 12:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L2 1H $729.25 $737.58 Sep 21, 2026 15:00 33,407.575 Closed +2.991% +$253,665.69 incl. -$36,544 costs View
Aug 22, 2026 05:00 Ripple, L 1H $1.5320 $1.4900 Sep 21, 2026 10:00 25,374,818.3 Closed -13.021% -$1,104,274.47 incl. -$58,310 costs View
Aug 22, 2026 05:00 Ripple, L2 1H $1.4467 $1.4900 Sep 21, 2026 10:00 27,293,107.85 Closed +13.442% +$1,139,967.26 incl. -$59,228 costs View
Aug 22, 2026 Cosmos, L $1.481 $1.855 Sep 8, 2026 6,849,396.25 Closed +30.076% +$2,550,605.26 incl. -$15,216 costs View
Aug 22, 2026 Cardano, L $0.2013 $0.2245 Sep 18, 2026 108,972,859 Closed +29.543% +$2,505,337.50 incl. -$32,902 costs View
Aug 24, 2026 Aave, L $126.12 $132.57 Sep 3, 2026 160,369 Closed +11.966% +$1,014,729.95 incl. -$30,338 costs View
Aug 28, 2026 Solana, L $101.64 $106.44 Sep 6, 2026 186,244.4 Closed +10.313% +$874,589.83 incl. -$28,394 costs View
Sep 2, 2026 11:00 Monero, L 1H $507.52 $511.00 Sep 2, 2026 11:00 27,930.9285 Closed +0.978% +$82,958.56 incl. -$21,263 costs View
Sep 2, 2026 19:00 Monero, L 1H $516.47 $512.98 Sep 2, 2026 19:00 27,892.7095 Closed -1.314% -$111,469.32 incl. -$21,608 costs View
Sep 2, 2026 19:00 Monero, L2 1H $503.48 $512.98 Sep 2, 2026 19:00 27,892.7095 Closed +2.959% +$250,898.15 incl. -$21,065 costs View
Sep 3, 2026 16:00 Monero, L 1H $515.88 $521.44 Sep 3, 2026 16:00 27,143.812 Closed +1.613% +$136,748.33 incl. -$21,005 costs View
Sep 3, 2026 20:00 Monero, L 1H $515.34 $523.82 Sep 3, 2026 20:00 27,133.5085 Closed +2.546% +$215,885.60 incl. -$20,975 costs View
Sep 4, 2026 07:00 Monero, L 1H $517.41 $540.58 Sep 4, 2026 07:00 25,752.567 Closed +6.875% +$583,030.62 incl. -$19,987 costs View
Sep 4, 2026 10:00 Monero, L 1H $548.85 $550.84 Sep 4, 2026 10:00 25,713.532 Closed +0.438% +$37,182.16 incl. -$21,169 costs View
Sep 4, 2026 12:00 Hyperliquid, L 1H $84.995 $85.073 Sep 4, 2026 18:00 63,384.355 Closed -0.005% -$403.89 incl. -$8,081 costs View
Sep 4, 2026 12:00 Zcash, L 1H $974.70 $986.19 Sep 4, 2026 13:00 7,350.12 Closed +0.910% +$77,195.15 incl. -$10,746 costs View
Sep 4, 2026 12:00 Dogecoin, L 1H $0.08531 $0.08548 Sep 5, 2026 06:00 92,054,146 Closed +0.084% +$7,145.81 incl. -$11,780 costs View
Sep 4, 2026 12:00 Chainlink, L 1H $11.746 $11.644 Sep 4, 2026 15:00 671,733.655 Closed -0.899% -$76,237.34 incl. -$11,835 costs View
Sep 4, 2026 12:00 Chainlink, L2 1H $11.469 $11.644 Sep 4, 2026 15:00 671,733.655 Closed +1.296% +$109,943.84 incl. -$11,556 costs View
Sep 4, 2026 12:00 Monero, L 1H $529.27 $537.75 Sep 4, 2026 20:00 27,479.271 Closed +2.574% +$218,285.20 incl. -$21,816 costs View
Sep 4, 2026 12:00 Bitcoin, L 1H $79,989.0 $79,961.5 Sep 5, 2026 16:00 145.173 Closed -0.184% -$15,598.11 incl. -$17,418 costs View
Sep 4, 2026 17:00 Zcash, L 1H $997.54 $1,024.12 Sep 4, 2026 18:00 7,218.515 Closed +2.176% +$184,534.83 incl. -$10,801 costs View
Sep 4, 2026 21:00 Monero, L 1H $521.08 $521.54 Sep 4, 2026 23:00 28,722.102 Closed -0.021% -$1,759.19 incl. -$22,450 costs View
Sep 6, 2026 13:00 Monero, L 1H $529.25 $530.34 Sep 6, 2026 13:00 26,774.331 Closed +0.177% +$15,024.23 incl. -$21,256 costs View
Sep 6, 2026 14:00 Zcash, L 1H $1,143.78 $1,166.90 Sep 6, 2026 15:00 6,353.205 Closed +1.645% +$139,529.58 incl. -$10,900 costs View
Sep 7, 2026 00:00 Zcash, L 1H $1,187.21 $1,189.51 Sep 7, 2026 02:00 6,165.77 Closed +0.081% +$6,908.44 incl. -$10,980 costs View
Sep 7, 2026 Monero, DD $510.20 $512.37 Sep 9, 2026 4,163.196 Closed +0.082% +$6,933.61 incl. -$3,186 costs View
Sep 7, 2026 07:00 Zcash, L 1H $1,168.67 $1,186.57 Sep 7, 2026 09:00 6,267.65 Closed +1.236% +$104,815.19 incl. -$10,987 costs View
Sep 7, 2026 07:00 Chainlink, L 1H $13.043 $13.359 Sep 7, 2026 08:00 599,881.215 Closed +2.142% +$181,637.44 incl. -$11,737 costs View
Sep 7, 2026 09:00 Monero, L 1H $531.70 $534.29 Sep 7, 2026 11:00 26,754.4315 Closed +0.651% +$55,225.90 incl. -$21,338 costs View
Sep 7, 2026 16:00 Monero, L 1H $517.90 $518.19 Sep 7, 2026 18:00 27,990.2065 Closed -0.075% -$6,375.99 incl. -$21,744 costs View
Sep 7, 2026 22:00 Zcash, L 1H $1,116.62 $1,138.97 Sep 7, 2026 23:00 6,904.485 Closed +1.728% +$146,545.74 incl. -$11,565 costs View
Sep 7, 2026 Chainlink, L $12.218 $12.222 Sep 18, 2026 2,600,803.43 Closed -0.254% -$21,576.89 incl. -$47,665 costs View
Sep 9, 2026 Binance Coin, L $725.06 $726.75 Sep 11, 2026 10,841.625 Closed +0.123% +$10,464.81 incl. -$11,791 costs View
Sep 9, 2026 Polkadot, L $1.151 — — 20,249,798.4 Open +16.778% +$1,422,852.08 incl. -$34,968 costs View
Sep 9, 2026 VeChain, L $0.007645 $0.007609 Sep 10, 2026 2,082,649,103 Closed -1.073% -$90,998.70 incl. -$23,883 costs View
Sep 9, 2026 Dogecoin, L $0.08187 $0.08741 Sep 18, 2026 263,840,152 Closed +16.953% +$1,437,657.82 incl. -$32,402 costs View
Sep 10, 2026 Hyperliquid, DD $78.610 $85.087 Sep 17, 2026 13,887.52 Closed +1.047% +$88,814.87 incl. -$1,638 costs View
Sep 10, 2026 12:00 Hyperliquid, L 1H $80.399 $81.009 Sep 10, 2026 13:00 76,369.455 Closed +0.477% +$40,446.08 incl. -$9,210 costs View
Sep 10, 2026 12:00 Zcash, L 1H $1,151.88 $1,207.04 Sep 11, 2026 13:00 13,895.585 Closed +8.845% +$750,069.17 incl. -$24,009 costs View
Sep 11, 2026 VeChain, L $0.007201 $0.007505 Sep 12, 2026 2,266,550,487 Closed +7.944% +$673,715.25 incl. -$24,482 costs View
Sep 11, 2026 15:00 Bitcoin, L 1H $77,509.8 $77,834.1 Sep 11, 2026 16:00 156.852 Closed +0.456% +$38,679.74 incl. -$18,236 costs View
Sep 11, 2026 Cosmos, L $1.678 $1.810 Sep 21, 2026 6,501,053.7 Closed +9.960% +$844,618.44 incl. -$16,367 costs View
Sep 13, 2026 09:00 Zcash, L 1H $1,077.72 $1,091.60 Sep 13, 2026 10:00 7,832.805 Closed +1.182% +$100,235.61 incl. -$12,662 costs View
Sep 15, 2026 Monero, DD $503.45 $517.96 Sep 17, 2026 4,369.8395 Closed +0.722% +$61,197.90 incl. -$3,300 costs View
Sep 15, 2026 Solana, L $98.07 $112.67 Sep 18, 2026 67,212.55 Closed +11.487% +$974,179.44 incl. -$9,888 costs View
Sep 15, 2026 VeChain, L $0.007234 $0.007165 Sep 16, 2026 2,278,166,437 Closed -2.028% -$171,942.45 incl. -$24,720 costs View
Sep 15, 2026 18:00 Bitcoin, L 1H $75,620.5 $76,111.1 Sep 15, 2026 19:00 163.149 Closed +0.798% +$67,659.92 incl. -$18,506 costs View
Sep 16, 2026 19:00 Zcash, L 1H $1,277.51 $1,318.66 Sep 16, 2026 20:00 6,086.555 Closed +2.860% +$242,543.45 incl. -$11,663 costs View
Sep 20, 2026 02:00 Chainlink, L 1H $11.949 $12.073 Sep 20, 2026 03:00 704,676.225 Closed +0.926% +$78,551.57 incl. -$12,631 costs View
Sep 20, 2026 VeChain, L $0.008343 $0.009305 Sep 21, 2026 2,021,970,727.5 Closed +22.727% +$1,927,343.85 incl. -$25,304 costs View
Sep 22, 2026 04:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L 1H $741.78 $747.44 Sep 22, 2026 19:00 23,219.755 Closed +1.344% +$113,959.56 incl. -$25,836 costs View
Sep 22, 2026 08:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L2 1H $739.43 $747.44 Sep 22, 2026 19:00 7,741.63 Closed +0.663% +$56,209.35 incl. -$8,587 costs View
Sep 22, 2026 14:00 Chainlink, L 1H $12.742 $13.032 Sep 22, 2026 15:00 657,501.235 Closed +2.155% +$182,781.04 incl. -$12,566 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 Binance Coin, L $762.65 $776.76 Sep 24, 2026 10,810.365 Closed +1.701% +$144,258.06 incl. -$12,367 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 Monero, DD $554.54 $566.31 Sep 24, 2026 2,074.98 Closed +0.274% +$23,258.77 incl. -$1,726 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 11:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L 1H $743.36 — — 39,197.455 Open +0.195% +$16,536.35 incl. -$43,707 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 11:00 Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ-100), L2 1H $741.26 — — 39,328.805 Open +1.167% +$98,984.39 incl. -$43,729 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 14:00 Hyperliquid, L 1H $92.648 $92.803 Sep 23, 2026 16:00 63,067.575 Closed +0.046% +$3,894.85 incl. -$8,765 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 14:00 Zcash, L 1H $1,555.37 $1,556.52 Sep 24, 2026 18:00 4,979.915 Closed -0.024% -$2,037.00 incl. -$11,618 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 Render, L $1.751 $1.854 Sep 24, 2026 7,882,379.33 Closed +9.447% +$801,166.21 incl. -$20,699 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 Solana, L $113.68 $122.04 Sep 25, 2026 60,693.55 Closed +5.899% +$500,256.94 incl. -$10,349 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 14:00 Ripple, L 1H $1.5100 $1.5266 Sep 23, 2026 14:00 7,529,152.6 Closed +1.346% +$114,113.52 incl. -$17,053 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 Dogecoin, L $0.09542 $0.09569 Sep 24, 2026 120,507,281.5 Closed +0.245% +$20,808.23 incl. -$17,249 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 Cosmos, L $1.741 — — 6,603,162.1 Open +4.401% +$373,210.72 incl. -$17,249 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 Cardano, L $0.2357 $0.2586 Sep 25, 2026 52,263,064 Closed +13.916% +$1,180,125.76 incl. -$18,481 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 Chainlink, L $12.358 $13.207 Sep 24, 2026 1,395,824.255 Closed +13.778% +$1,168,445.25 incl. -$25,873 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 14:00 Monero, L 1H $550.68 $551.73 Sep 23, 2026 14:00 27,508.751 Closed +0.162% +$13,713.31 incl. -$22,723 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 14:00 Bitcoin, L 1H $84,431.4 $84,424.7 Sep 23, 2026 19:00 145.956 Closed -0.157% -$13,312.33 incl. -$18,485 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 Aave, L $137.85 $146.78 Sep 24, 2026 83,417.35 Closed +8.638% +$732,567.88 incl. -$17,249 costs View
Sep 23, 2026 VeChain, L $0.008796 $0.009258 Sep 24, 2026 1,960,894,697.5 Closed +10.472% +$888,071.74 incl. -$25,872 costs View
83 positions Total: +18.82% (+$1,596,215.00)

Legal Disclaimer

This page is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and nothing herein constitutes financial, tax, legal, or investment advice. Your use of the software and interpretation of the data presented is at your own risk.

Legal Compliance

Users are responsible for determining whether use of this information is legal in their jurisdiction. This site does not provide legal, financial, or tax advice.

Portfolio Backtest Methodology

The portfolio view simulates all strategies trading together with shared capital — matching how live trading operates on one shared exchange balance.

Portfolio Simulation

  • • Shared Equity: All strategies share one capital pool ($1,000 per strategy). When one strategy profits, all strategies get proportionally larger allocations.
  • • Allocation Cap: Each strategy is limited to max 10% of portfolio equity per day, preventing any single strategy from dominating during bull markets.
  • • Daily Rebalancing: Allocations are recalculated each day from the total portfolio cash, matching how the live executor distributes capital across strategies.

Costs & Realistic Modeling

  • • Trading Fees: 0.05% taker fee per trade (Binance Futures VIP 0 level)
  • • Slippage: 0% on L/L2 entries (limit-style fills) and 0.05% on exits — simulates real-world market impact (0.15% round-trip cost per trade)
  • • Drawdown Tracking: Equity is tracked daily including unrealized PnL from open positions. Drawdowns reflect real underwater periods, not just realized losses.
  • • Funding Rates: Excluded. Smart-HODL trades longs during dips when funding is typically neutral or negative (favorable for longs).

Data & Execution

  • • Multi-Timeframe: Strategies use both daily (1D) and hourly (1H) candles for entry detection, matching the live executor behavior.
  • • Data Source: Binance Futures USDT perpetual contracts. Spot market data used for warmup periods before futures listing.
  • • Period: January 2020 to present (in-sample). Independently validated against 2017-2019 (out-of-sample) — see below. Each strategy activates when sufficient data becomes available for its asset.
  • • Updated: Results are recalculated nightly with the latest market data.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests are simulations and actual trading may differ due to market conditions, liquidity, and execution timing.

Out-of-Sample Validation (2017-2019)

A strategy that only works on the data it was tuned on is overfitted. To prove Smart-HODL is not overfitted to the 2020-present regime, we ran the exact same strategy parameters against an entirely independent window — 2017-01-01 to 2019-12-31 — that was never used during parameter tuning. This window is dominated by the 2018 bear market, when most crypto assets lost 75-90% of their value.

Smart-HODL portfolio
+5.34%
CAGR over 2017-2019
Max drawdown: 32.27%
Win rate: 84.0%
Margin breaches: 0
Buy & Hold benchmark
−22.99%
CAGR over the same window
BTC return: −56.0%
ETH return: −81.0%
Basket avg return: −27.9%
Out-of-sample alpha
+77.8 pp
Strategy − Buy & Hold (net profit)
Universe: 10 strategies with sufficient history
Trades: 374
Settings: identical to live (2× lev, 10% cap)

What this proves: The same parameters that produce strong returns in the 2020-present regime also stayed positive — and well above passive holding — in the worst bear market crypto has ever seen. The system is regime-aware, not regime-specific.

What it does not promise: Bear-market years will look like the 5% number, not the larger headline CAGR shown in bull-market backtests. A realistic long-run expectation blends both regimes. Live results will differ from any backtest due to slippage, latency, and exchange behavior under stress.

Honest tier: We classify Smart-HODL as a solid retail-quant strategy — top of the publicly available systematic-strategy bracket, but not institutional hedge-fund tier (e.g. Renaissance, Citadel, Two Sigma). Six years of crypto-cycle data is not a substitute for multi-decade, multi-regime institutional track records, and we size and communicate accordingly.

OOS data: Binance Spot 1D + 1H. Universe restricted to symbols listed before 2019-09 with ≥120 days warmup.