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How we trade

Portfolio Equity

Full portfolio balance from backtest start. Includes unrealized PnL from open positions. The highlighted region shows your currently selected time period.

Important: The performance figures shown are historical and provided for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. These results do not constitute investment advice, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.

Max Drawdown

Smart-HODL

4.07 4.07%

Lower drawdown pain, faster recoveries, and shorter time spent underwater.

Multi-Asset Buy & Hold

6.66%

Deep, prolonged drawdowns that keep capital trapped for months or years.

Profit

Smart-HODL

+3.60%

+$2,586,023

Combined profit from 49 positions across 17 strategies ($78,481,467 deployed).

Multi-Asset Buy & Hold

6.65 +6.65%

+$12,613

Multi-Asset Buy & Hold return since May 1, 2026 (portfolio was $189,801 at start).

Risk Acknowledgment

Cryptocurrency and digital asset trading carries a high level of risk, including the possible loss of all capital. You should carefully consider whether such trading is appropriate for your financial situation, experience, and risk tolerance. The software does not provide personalized investment, financial, tax, or legal advice and should not be relied upon as such.

Positions

Date Strategy Entry Price Close Price Close Time Qty Status PNL Chart
Oct 16, 2025 Cosmos, DD $2.273 545,266.35 Open -0.114% -$82,283.42 incl. -$1,859 costs View
Nov 11, 2025 Aave, DD $203.78 2,598.05 Open -0.428% -$307,769.22 incl. -$794 costs View
Nov 12, 2025 Solana, DD $145.42 3,643.15 Open -0.311% -$223,422.58 incl. -$795 costs View
Nov 12, 2025 Polkadot, DD $2.619 339,601.05 Open -0.651% -$468,060.92 incl. -$1,334 costs View
Jan 18, 2026 23:00 Chainlink, L 1H $13.230 191,374.14 Open -1.017% -$731,955.37 incl. -$3,798 costs View
Jan 19, 2026 Sui, L $1.1348 $1.3313 May 10, 2026 5,655,379.66 Closed +1.535% +$1,104,594.13 incl. -$9,626 costs View
Jan 19, 2026 00:00 Chainlink, L2 1H $9.220 261,138.595 Open +0.067% +$48,249.27 incl. -$3,612 costs View
Jan 20, 2026 Cardano, DD $0.2776 7,536,497 Open -0.383% -$275,677.52 incl. -$3,138 costs View
Jan 25, 2026 Solana, L $113.66 26,839.1 Open -1.103% -$793,716.78 incl. -$4,576 costs View
Jan 29, 2026 Binance Coin, L $705.68 9,440 Open -0.617% -$443,951.47 incl. -$9,992 costs View
Jan 29, 2026 Aave, L $126.21 40,867.75 Open -2.323% -$1,671,097.13 incl. -$7,737 costs View
Jan 31, 2026 Binance Coin, L2 $778.29 1,630.4 Open -0.271% -$195,068.25 incl. -$1,903 costs View
Jan 31, 2026 Polkadot, L $1.477 1,190,166.5 Open -0.391% -$281,392.26 incl. -$2,638 costs View
Jan 31, 2026 Solana, L2 $98.21 10,383.35 Open -0.204% -$146,628.48 incl. -$1,530 costs View
Mar 3, 2026 PAX Gold, L $4,567.80 2,144.2965 Open -0.097% -$69,973.23 incl. -$14,692 costs View
May 4, 2026 10:00 Zcash, L 1H $399.19 $408.99 May 4, 2026 12:00 4,573.6 Closed +0.060% +$42,969.62 incl. -$2,739 costs View
May 4, 2026 10:00 Dogecoin, L 1H $0.10891 $0.11038 May 4, 2026 11:00 12,722,069 Closed +0.024% +$17,260.58 incl. -$2,078 costs View
May 4, 2026 10:00 Bitcoin, L 1H $78,425.7 $78,776.7 May 4, 2026 12:00 28.4375 Closed +0.011% +$7,747.49 incl. -$3,345 costs View
May 4, 2026 12:00 Tron, L 1H $0.33588 $0.33907 May 4, 2026 14:00 5,343,643.5 Closed +0.021% +$15,253.94 incl. -$2,692 costs View
May 6, 2026 09:00 Zcash, L 1H $567.60 $579.71 May 6, 2026 10:00 3,241.15 Closed +0.052% +$37,406.59 incl. -$2,759 costs View
May 6, 2026 13:00 Dogecoin, L 1H $0.11006 $0.11179 May 10, 2026 22:00 38,688,866 Closed +0.087% +$62,863.40 incl. -$6,387 costs View
May 9, 2026 10:00 Monero, L 1H $408.64 $410.22 May 9, 2026 10:00 6,851.1775 Closed +0.011% +$8,079.72 incl. -$4,199 costs View
May 9, 2026 VeChain, L $0.007529 $0.007904 May 10, 2026 373,530,450 Closed +0.191% +$137,316.66 incl. -$4,218 costs View
May 10, 2026 20:00 Zcash, L 1H $568.97 $574.19 May 10, 2026 21:00 3,361.9 Closed +0.022% +$15,642.12 incl. -$2,869 costs View
May 10, 2026 20:00 Render, L 1H $1.998 $2.018 May 10, 2026 22:00 968,326.24 Closed +0.024% +$17,235.38 incl. -$2,902 costs View
May 10, 2026 20:00 Ripple, L 1H $1.4543 $1.4722 May 10, 2026 22:00 1,326,822.1 Closed +0.030% +$21,769.74 incl. -$2,894 costs View
May 10, 2026 20:00 Monero, L 1H $404.82 $408.23 May 10, 2026 22:00 7,123.457 Closed +0.030% +$21,375.53 incl. -$4,326 costs View
May 10, 2026 20:00 Bitcoin, L 1H $80,252.7 $81,972.2 May 10, 2026 22:00 28.5995 Closed +0.065% +$46,857.17 incl. -$3,443 costs View
May 11, 2026 Sui, L $1.1880 6,017,669.515 Open -1.351% -$972,238.76 incl. -$10,723 costs View
May 12, 2026 02:00 Tron, L 1H $0.34722 $0.34857 May 12, 2026 03:00 5,268,611.65 Closed +0.007% +$5,240.55 incl. -$2,744 costs View
May 13, 2026 04:00 Zcash, L 1H $560.73 $561.08 May 14, 2026 22:00 3,395.75 Closed -0.001% -$707.90 incl. -$2,856 costs View
May 13, 2026 19:00 Monero, L 1H $390.86 $391.97 May 13, 2026 19:00 7,410.464 Closed +0.007% +$5,355.12 incl. -$4,345 costs View
May 15, 2026 Monero, DD $381.73 $388.11 May 16, 2026 586.0665 Closed +0.005% +$3,510.63 incl. -$336 costs View
May 15, 2026 13:00 Render, L 1H $1.824 $1.831 May 15, 2026 15:00 1,072,807.67 Closed +0.008% +$6,054.87 incl. -$2,935 costs View
May 15, 2026 13:00 VeChain, L 1H $0.006952 $0.006974 May 15, 2026 14:00 278,095,400 Closed +0.005% +$3,913.97 incl. -$2,900 costs View
May 15, 2026 13:00 Bitcoin, L 1H $78,992.8 $79,081.0 May 15, 2026 14:00 29.532 Closed +0.000% +$271.94 incl. -$3,499 costs View
May 17, 2026 23:00 Render, L 1H $1.759 $1.787 May 18, 2026 04:00 1,082,642.22 Closed +0.040% +$28,758.92 incl. -$2,856 costs View
May 17, 2026 23:00 Ripple, L2 1H $1.3650 $1.4000 May 17, 2026 23:00 1,383,642.4 Closed +0.065% +$46,570.44 incl. -$2,833 costs View
May 17, 2026 23:00 Ripple, L 1H $1.3881 $1.4000 May 17, 2026 23:00 1,383,642.4 Closed +0.020% +$14,564.16 incl. -$2,881 costs View
May 17, 2026 23:00 Dogecoin, L 1H $0.10177 $0.10223 May 23, 2026 18:00 28,101,701 Closed +0.014% +$9,956.93 incl. -$4,290 costs View
May 17, 2026 23:00 VeChain, L 1H $0.006555 $0.006663 May 18, 2026 00:00 291,067,824 Closed +0.041% +$29,476.99 incl. -$2,862 costs View
May 17, 2026 23:00 Bitcoin, L 1H $76,839.0 $76,861.6 May 18, 2026 03:00 30.0335 Closed -0.002% -$1,627.27 incl. -$3,462 costs View
May 18, 2026 16:00 Monero, L 1H $375.63 $381.71 May 18, 2026 16:00 7,622.0435 Closed +0.060% +$43,418.76 incl. -$4,295 costs View
May 22, 2026 13:00 Tron, L 1H $0.35957 $0.36120 May 22, 2026 14:00 5,024,161.5 Closed +0.009% +$6,395.84 incl. -$2,710 costs View
May 22, 2026 Zcash, L $584.83 $630.16 May 23, 2026 3,325.8 Closed +0.207% +$148,750.60 incl. -$2,918 costs View
May 23, 2026 07:00 Ripple, L 1H $1.3012 $1.3106 May 23, 2026 07:00 1,483,470.15 Closed +0.017% +$12,046.81 incl. -$2,895 costs View
May 23, 2026 07:00 Bitcoin, L 1H $74,248.6 $74,617.7 May 23, 2026 08:00 31.3025 Closed +0.013% +$9,221.93 incl. -$3,486 costs View
May 24, 2026 21:00 Monero, L 1H $387.31 $388.18 May 24, 2026 22:00 7,557.099 Closed +0.005% +$3,605.07 incl. -$4,390 costs View
May 25, 2026 15:00 Tron, L 1H $0.36866 $0.37318 May 25, 2026 16:00 4,799,329.5 Closed +0.028% +$19,942.58 incl. -$2,654 costs View
49 positions Total: +3.60% (+$2,586,023.38)

Legal Disclaimer

This page is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and nothing herein constitutes financial, tax, legal, or investment advice. Your use of the software and interpretation of the data presented is at your own risk.

Legal Compliance

Users are responsible for determining whether use of this information is legal in their jurisdiction. This site does not provide legal, financial, or tax advice.

Portfolio Backtest Methodology

The portfolio view simulates all strategies trading together with shared capital — matching how live trading operates on a single Binance account.

Portfolio Simulation

  • Shared Equity: All strategies share one capital pool ($1,000 per strategy). When one strategy profits, all strategies get proportionally larger allocations.
  • Allocation Cap: Each strategy is limited to max 10% of portfolio equity per day, preventing any single strategy from dominating during bull markets.
  • Daily Rebalancing: Allocations are recalculated each day from the total portfolio cash, matching how the live executor distributes capital across strategies.

Costs & Realistic Modeling

  • Trading Fees: 0.05% taker fee per trade (Binance Futures VIP 0 level)
  • Slippage: 0% on L/L2 entries (limit-style fills) and 0.05% on exits — simulates real-world market impact (0.15% round-trip cost per trade)
  • Drawdown Tracking: Equity is tracked daily including unrealized PnL from open positions. Drawdowns reflect real underwater periods, not just realized losses.
  • Funding Rates: Excluded. Smart-HODL trades longs during dips when funding is typically neutral or negative (favorable for longs).

Data & Execution

  • Multi-Timeframe: Strategies use both daily (1D) and hourly (1H) candles for entry detection, matching the live executor behavior.
  • Data Source: Binance Futures USDT perpetual contracts. Spot market data used for warmup periods before futures listing.
  • Period: January 2020 to present (in-sample). Independently validated against 2017-2019 (out-of-sample) — see below. Each strategy activates when sufficient data becomes available for its asset.
  • Updated: Results are recalculated nightly with the latest market data.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests are simulations and actual trading may differ due to market conditions, liquidity, and execution timing.

Out-of-Sample Validation (2017-2019)

A strategy that only works on the data it was tuned on is overfitted. To prove Smart-HODL is not overfitted to the 2020-present regime, we ran the exact same strategy parameters against an entirely independent window — 2017-01-01 to 2019-12-31 — that was never used during parameter tuning. This window is dominated by the 2018 bear market, when most crypto assets lost 75-90% of their value.

Smart-HODL portfolio
+5.34%
CAGR over 2017-2019
Max drawdown: 32.27%
Win rate: 84.0%
Margin breaches: 0
Buy & Hold benchmark
−22.99%
CAGR over the same window
BTC return: −56.0%
ETH return: −81.0%
Basket avg return: −27.9%
Out-of-sample alpha
+77.8 pp
Strategy − Buy & Hold (net profit)
Universe: 10 strategies with sufficient history
Trades: 374
Settings: identical to live (2× lev, 10% cap)

What this proves: The same parameters that produce strong returns in the 2020-present regime also stayed positive — and well above passive holding — in the worst bear market crypto has ever seen. The system is regime-aware, not regime-specific.

What it does not promise: Bear-market years will look like the 5% number, not the larger headline CAGR shown in bull-market backtests. A realistic long-run expectation blends both regimes. Live results will differ from any backtest due to slippage, latency, and exchange behavior under stress.

Honest tier: We classify Smart-HODL as a solid retail-quant strategy — top of the publicly available systematic-strategy bracket, but not institutional hedge-fund tier (e.g. Renaissance, Citadel, Two Sigma). Six years of crypto-cycle data is not a substitute for multi-decade, multi-regime institutional track records, and we size and communicate accordingly.

OOS data: Binance Spot 1D + 1H. Universe restricted to symbols listed before 2019-09 with ≥120 days warmup.